Archive : ISG Pamphlets : War in the Balkans

Foreword

No to the Cynical ’Peace’ Deal

The first edition of this pamphlet was going to print as news came in of the ’Peace Deal’ agreed to by the Serbian Parliament. Our initial response had to be based on the very few details available at the time. At the time we wrote: ’The deal is a cynical compromise: neither a complete victory for NATO nor an abject capitulation by Milosevic. The media spin that this is a worse deal for Milosevic than was available at Rambouillet does not stand up to analysis.

 At Rambouillet, Serbia was required to allow NATO troops the right to roam freely throughout the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, including Serbia, subject to no legal restraints. The current deal confines NATO troops to Kosova.

 The bulk of the forces in Kosova will no doubt come from NATO states. Russia and others will, however, also provide troops. Since Russia will be reluctant to put its troops under NATO command, there will probably be Russian ’zones’, however much NATO tries to deny this.

 There will no longer be a referendum in 3 years time in Kosova on independence. Kosova will remain part of the FRY for the indefinite future.

On all three of these points Milosevic has gained in comparison with Rambouillet. If such a deal had been on offer at Rambouillet the Serbian regime would probably have accepted it’. Subsequent events have confirmed this analysis.

 NATO troops are confined to Kosova.

 The rapid movement of Russian troops into Prishtina took NATO by surprise. NATO clearly does not want to get involved in a confrontation with those forces. The current negotiations going on about the role of Russian troops will end in a compromise in which NATO can claim the Russians operate under a unified NATO command and don’t have their own zone - but in practice Russian troops will control certain zones. Indeed, if NATO is actually serious about wanting Serbs to remain in Kosova the only way that could be achieved is by giving the Russians control of parts of Kosova.

 In law, at least, Kosova still remains part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia though in practice it is obviously a NATO colony. Elections were promised for nine months time - they have now been postponed for at least two years. When they do finally take place they will be totally under the control of the occupying forces.

Bosnia after the Dayton agreement shows how meaningless elections in such conditions are. Despite numerous elections at both local and national levels the elected officials can do nothing without the approval of SFOR, the Organisation for Cooperation on Security in Europe or the Office of the UN High Representative. It is, to all intents and purposes, illegal for any candidate to challenge the Dayton agreement. International bodies in Bosnia insist on compliance with a whole range of Conventions that they do not even support themselves. Any querying of SFOR, the OSCE, OHR etc is seen as deliberate obstruction. The net result is that nationalist politics are even stronger now than before Dayton.

The only difference in Kosova is that most Serbs will probably have left and therefore there won’t be the need for the extremely complicated arrangements imposed on Bosnia to ensure ’ethnic balance’.

Under the deal the KLA is supposed to be ’demilitarised’, but it is clear that NATO and the KLA have very different interpretations of what that means. The KLA has surrendered some weapons - mainly old ones - but whether or not it will surrender all its weapons remains debatable, particularly as it is now stronger than at the beginning of the war. Conflicts between NATO occupation troops and the KLA have already taken place, with NATO troops threatening to kill KLA fighters if they don’t surrender weapons. The situation is, however, patchy. In some areas, especially Prizren, the KLA operates openly on the streets, with German troops making no attempts to disarm them. The US and British troops have taken a more aggressive line. The likely outcome is that the current leadership of the KLA will be bullied into giving up some of its weapons but the level of cooperation at a local level will depend on the KLA units on the ground. Many weapons will undoubtedly be hidden.

So where does this leave the Kosovars? They are returning to a devastated country, where the ecological consequences of the war are unknown, and in which the national question remains unresolved. They are unable to freely elect a government, still less declare independence or seek unity with Albania. NATO troops will remain in Kosova for years.

The end of the war has brought new problems for NATO. A new refugee crisis has been created as tens of thousands of Kosova Serbs flee to Serbia and Montenegro. It hardly takes a degree in psychology to work out that these Serbs do not have much faith in the willingness to protect them of people who until a few days ago were raining bombs down on them. Serb reluctance to accept NATO ’protection’ is given added emphasis by NATO’s insistence that all Yugoslav Army reservists must leave Kosova. If this is taken literally then all Kosova Serb men of military age would be forced to leave.

We do not accept that the flight of the Serbs from Kosova is comparable to the deliberate expulsion of the Kosovar Albanians by Serbian forces. There has, however, been at least one confirmed attack by KLA units on a Serb monastery and the abduction of an Orthodox priest. Socialist Outlook totally condemns such actions. We can understand the desire for revenge felt by many Albanians but such actions can only lead to an ethnically pure Albanian Kosova, a step we cannot support.

Milosevic also faces growing problems. There are moves for greater autonomy, including independence, in Montenegro. Support for autonomy is likely to grow in Vojvodina. Opposition is increasing in Serbia too. The Orthodox Church has called on Milosevic to resign in favour of a government of national unity. Serbs leaving Kosova have denounced him as a traitor. Despite this NATO will have great difficulty in finding a more acceptable replacement: most of Milosevic’s rivals are even more nationalist. The west’s current favourite, Zoran Djindjic, has had close ties with Radovan Karadzic and opposed Milosevic when he dumped the Bosnian Serbs prior to Dayton, There remains the threat that Seselj could mobilise nationalist opposition to replace Milosevic. Seselj is best placed to benefit from the influx of Kosova Serbs.

Tony Blair has once again been most gung-ho in opposing any aid to Serbia while Milosevic remains in power. Whether or not this will increase opposition to Milosevic remains to be seen - the chances are, however, that it won’t. Serbs will once again see themselves as being victimised by the west. In any case, despite Blair’s rhetoric, it is unlikely that Serbia would be starved of aid. It is impossible to reconstruct the Balkans without involving Serbia. The Danube, which passes through Serbia, is a major water way carrying large amounts of goods. Its continued use requires major work in Serbia to make it once again navigable. Refusal to clear the Danube would affect the economies of all the Balkan states, not just Serbia. In any case western capitalists would soon discover that the vast profits to be made by rebuilding the devastated Serbian infrastructure were far more important than Blair’s rhetoric.

Finally we should note that despite NATO claims during the war of having destroyed vast amounts of Serbian military hardware the retreating Serb forces are taking with them a huge amount of tanks, anti-aircraft guns and artillery. If NATO’s claims had been even vaguely accurate then we would have expected to see pictures of large amounts of destroyed military equipment on our TV screens - such pictures have been noticeably absent.

The war between NATO and Serbia may be over, but there remains the struggle for Kosovar self-determination. Socialist Outlook has always championed the national rights of the Kosovars. They have the right to self-determination, including independence or even unification with Albania if they so choose. Neither NATO nor Milosevic has the right to deny them their legitimate demands.

Socialists must step up support for Kosovar self-determination, which will now be an explicit fight against NATO.

We also need to step up practical solidarity work with Kosova. Support for International Workers Aid and Workers Aid for Kosova needs to be built throughout the labour movement.

 No to this cynical deal!
 NATO troops out of the Balkans!
 Immediate recognition of Kosovar independence!
 For the right of return of Kosova Serbs with the guaranteeing of full national rights in an independent Kosova!

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